Why does optimism make people angry? If you even mention the word in mixed company, not only do you get ridiculed and treated as though you are a little simple, it actually makes people angry. At you. But why is this? As a natural pessimist (I am terrible cynic) I have a few ideas. Pessimism, … Continue reading Why Optimism Makes People Angry
Demographic dividend, or demographic disaster? As India is about to overtake China as the world's most populous country, it's worth considering if holding that title is still the win it once was. Not so long ago, more people meant more growth, more productivity, more progress. Hence the term: demographic dividend. If your working age population … Continue reading Assets to Liabilities
At the moment, a crop of ideas that have been lying around for some time are sprouting. Make no mistake, these ideas time has come and they will be used to shape the next generation of economic and social policy. They will affect every life and every nation. Specifically, 2020 has seen the following ideas … Continue reading Ideas Lying Around (and Sprouting)
I find myself sharing the same essays over and over again, and I thought it would be useful to collect all these perennial favourites into one resource. Enjoy the rabbit hole. On the tyranny of the minority - or why the most unreasonable win: https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15O On luxury beliefs: https://nypost.com/2019/08/17/luxury-beliefs-are-the-latest-status-symbol-for-rich-americans/ On why there are (still) no … Continue reading A few of my favourite things
We are currently at a cross roads when it comes to the balance of power across the world. Advances in technology are combining with shifting socio-economic trends to form new ideologies, each pushing for a different versions of utopia. Here follows a set of broad-strokes possible macro socio-economic scenarios that could play out in the … Continue reading Society 2030: A Set of Socio-Economic Scenario Sketches
"Our opinions and beliefs, what we hold to be true and what we think is right and wrong have all become strategic objectives... Each of us has been brought - face-to-face - to a new front line." The (very readable) Death of the Gods by Carl Miller is a whirlwind overview of the biggest Big … Continue reading Death of the Gods
There is a problem with automated governance and outsourcing decision making to artificial intelligence. And that problem is probability. And the probable problem at hand is that the innocent are flagged as guilty, the right candidates flagged as wrong, at an unacceptably high probability. As we use - even highly reliable - automated systems such … Continue reading I don’t like the look of your face
Nudge is a book about "Libertarian Paternalism" - in other words about manipulating people into making better choices that are in their best interests (according to some centralised authority anyway). Tautology aside, the book is a decent take on the more practical (or evil, depending on your point of view) applications of behavioural economics. The … Continue reading Nudge
In a world where this is possible: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AmUC4m6w1wo Seeing is not believing. We can no longer trust our own eyes. Photographic evidence, of course, has been questionable since the distant days of the Cottingley Fairies scam which fooled countless Victorians over 100 years ago. Now, not even authentic video "evidence" can be trusted (as is so … Continue reading More Lies (A Field Guide to Lies and Statistics)
