Vicious and virtuous

Inn-Sewer-Ants: the translation of an Agatean concept brought to Ankh-Morpork by Twoflower. The idea was that a financial institution, upon payment of a yearly “premium”, would guarantee reimbursement of loss of property due to fire or other disaster. This must have worked well in the Aurient, but Morporkians soon found the opportunity to reap windfall profits of thousands of percent irresistible. The ensuing chain of events included the Great Fire of Ankh-Morpork, the formation of the Firefighters’ Guild, and Charcoal Wednesday.
Blown by the up-draft, the scorched parchment of the Inn-sewer-ants polly-sea floated across the Disc. It came down on the Brown Islands where the natives laughingly worshipped it as a god. For the next seven years they received good rainfall and bumper harvests of crops.
A research team of UU wizards later dispatched to study this event finally concluded; ‘it only goes to show’.
” ~ Terry Pratchett

There is a difference between investing in what you want to happen; and in hedging against what you don’t want.

The one is a virtuous circle, the other a vicious one.

Optimists invested in the future have an incentive to build it.

Pessimists who have hedged against the future have a perverse incentive to see the future fail.

Furthermore, by investing in the future we want, we increase the odds of that future coming to be.

Likewise, by betting against the future we want because we don’t believe it is possible, we increase the odds of that future failure.

If you emigrate or move your investments out of our nation because you believe your nation is headed for economic disaster, you accelerate that economic decline.

If you rather invest in your country, you improve the odds of its success, however slightly, your bet changes the odds of the game.

Expectations change reality. (As any economist will tell you)

So, either way, you’re right.

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