Money gets surreal when it becomes untethered from reality; and a lot of strange financial wizardry began decoupling real value and nominal financial money in and around the 1970's. The website wfthappendin1978.com tells the story in pictures, in a series of economic charts that illustrate better than a thousand essays would, what happens when the rules … Continue reading WTF Happened in the 1970s?
I have an affinity for dark Soviet humour. There is a lot we can learn from those who have been through the dark places we are headed towards. One such old joke runs as follows: A hare is running frantically though a forest. A bear stops him and asks, "Why are you running?". The hare … Continue reading The Hare and the Camel
"The winner takes it all" ~ ABBA The quote above really sums up the near-term effects of the combined COVID-19 and social crises on the 2020s ahead. I was recently asked to submit a chapter to Aftershocks and Opportunities, and I wrote on exactly that; how crises highlight and amplify the deep-seated cracks and devastating … Continue reading The Winner Takes it All
From my perspective, all the many trends that I track are linked in one way or a another to four overarching, civilisation-level, end-game "meta trends". Of course, all four of these meta trends are themselves interlinked and interactive, and can be envisaged as four oscillating cyclical waves that pull together, pull apart and underwrite the … Continue reading Meta Trends and Far Future Visions
If you are a futurist, you should be watching the sex industry. The world's oldest industry is full of shiny new ideas and quick to adopt new trends and technologies. It's also very flexible. (Puns all fully intended). I wrote in more detail about this subject here. Enjoy.
"Your iPhone is all that is left of your once limitless future" ~ Eric Weinstein There is a difference between volatility and dynamism. There is a difference between invention and innovation. There is a difference between technological adoption and technological disruption. There is a difference between technology that accelerates and (re)distributes that future, and technology … Continue reading Volatility is not Dynamism
"Everyone except an economist knows what 'money' means, and even an economist can describe it in at the course of a chapter or so..." ~ A.H. Quiggin Best chased (in my opinion) with a little eurodollar crash course (like this) Money, The Unauthorised Biography is one of the better efforts in the genre of "attempting … Continue reading Money (the unauthorised biography)
How much do you value yourself? Or, another question, how much do you value your present self compared to your future self? Most of us are based towards the present. We discount the future and over-value the present. This is not entirely unreasonable. Life is finite. We have no guarantees that we will even have … Continue reading Trading personal futures – Discounting or investing in the future?
"And so if we look at Europe and we say, well, how will Europe be different from the way it is today in the future? I think there's sort of three pictures of a very different future, and sort of behind door number one is Islamic Sharia law, and if you're a woman, you'll be … Continue reading Three doors; one room
At the end of last year, I was asked to write a few thoughts on the most important, most disruptive technological milestones for each year of the last decade that will continue to have an impact in the future of the decade to come. Here follows the original version of that article, before it was edited … Continue reading Trend retrospective, a decade in the rearview mirror